Track record · closed signal

Synovus Financial Corp. (SNV) — closed signal from July 25, 2025

Missed Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 23, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

SNV price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$55.87 Published $66.05 Target $45.08 Window close $52.24 Peak
$53.37 – $56.28Entry zone — fair-value band
$55.87Published — price the day we called it
$66.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$52.24Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$45.08Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Missed

Never rose above the publication price inside the window.

Peak price
$52.24
peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
-6.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$45.08
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 25, 2025 – October 23, 2025

The thesis — published July 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$66.05
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$53.37 – $56.28
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$55.87
published July 25, 2025
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The planned $8.6 billion merger with Pinnacle would form a larger Sun Belt bank with about $182 billion in assets, and management expects earnings per share to climb roughly 10% by 2027. After the news, the stock fell 9%, bringing the price close to the bank’s tangible book value, a common yardstick for worth. Trading data shows lots more people are buying than usual. Detailed cost-saving plans and formal filings coming this quarter could push the shares toward $66 within three months.

Primary drivers

  • Merger expected to lift earnings per share about 10% once cost savings kick in.
  • Trading activity shows more buyers than sellers even after the recent drop.
  • Strong population and business growth in the Sun Belt should boost new loans.
  • Shares trade at about 1.2 times book value, cheaper than many similar banks.

How it played out

SNV: target never reached

Lyra published SNV at 55.87 on 2025-07-25. The thesis expected 20% growth toward 66.05. It pointed to the planned merger with Pinnacle, expected earnings per share growth of about 10% by 2027, stronger trading activity, Sun Belt growth, and a valuation near 1.2 times book value.

Inside the window, SNV did not reach the target. Its peak was 52.24 on 2025-09-05, with a peak gain of -6.5%. The stock ended the window at 45.08. The thesis missed. The expected recovery never showed up in the measured price path.

What happened during the window

On 2025-07-25, Barron's reported that Pinnacle Financial Partners and Synovus had agreed to an $8.6 billion all-stock merger. The article said the deal valued Synovus at $61.18 per share and was expected to add 21% to Pinnacle's operating earnings per share by 2027.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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