Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) — closed signal from March 17, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 15, 2026 — +63.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$347.47 Published $399.59 Target $567.25 Window close $569.95 Peak
$341.00 – $349.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$347.47Published — price the day we called it
$399.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$569.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$567.25Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 24 days.

At window close
+63.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+64%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+12.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$567.25
last close inside the window, ended June 15, 2026
Peak price
$569.95
peak on June 12, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
24

The thesis — published March 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$399.59
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$341.00 – $349.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$347.47
published March 17, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Applied Materials appears attractive after pulling back to a lower price area and showing clearer risk limits. News about working on memory for AI and faster materials research suggests more customers may buy its equipment as chip makers expand capacity. The company has a solid balance sheet and steady execution, so a careful short-term trade looks reasonable for 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • AI memory and materials news could increase equipment orders
  • Strong balance sheet gives more downside protection
  • Pullback into a lower price area creates a clearer entry
  • Consistent execution reduces operational uncertainty

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 24 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 15% growth from a price of $347.47, with a target of $399.59. The thesis pointed to memory and materials research tied to artificial intelligence, possible equipment demand, a strong balance sheet, a recent pullback, and consistent execution.

AMAT reached the target in 24 days. It later peaked at $569.95 on June 12, a 64% gain. The price ended the window at $567.25 on June 15, close to its peak and well above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its published expectation.

What happened during the window

On May 14, 2026, Applied Materials reported second-quarter revenue of $7.91 billion, up 11% year over year, and GAAP earnings per share of $3.51.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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