Track record · closed signal

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) — closed signal from March 16, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 14, 2026 — -4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$92.00 – $95.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$94.90Published — price the day we called it

$107.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$100.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$91.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+11.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$91.10

last close inside the window, ended June 14, 2026

Peak price

$100.76

peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$107.24

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$92.00 – $95.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$94.90

published March 16, 2026

Confidence

79%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks like a relatively safe financial pick for the next few months because its business is actually improving, not just hoping to recover. February brought strong new client money and clearer revenue prospects. The stock is near its recent average price, so buying slowly in a choppy market makes sense.

Primary drivers

New client money is rising and should help revenue recover
Broker and custody work is less tied to bank credit problems
Company raised its guidance, making near-term outlook clearer
Stock is trading near normal levels, not stretched high

How it played out

SCHW: a partial rise, but the target was missed

Lyra published SCHW at 94.90 with an expected gain of 13%. The thesis pointed to rising new client money, improving revenue, a business less tied to bank credit problems, and raised guidance. It also viewed the stock as near normal levels rather than stretched.

Inside the window, SCHW peaked at 100.76 on April 15, a 6.2% gain. It stayed below the 107.24 target and never reached the expected 13% gain. The stock ended at 91.10, below the 94.90 publication price. The thesis partially played out at the peak, but missed its target and finished below where it began.

What happened during the window

On April 16, Schwab reported first-quarter net income of $2.5 billion and revenue of $6.5 billion. On June 2, it announced trading-platform updates, including expanded fractional trading for most U.S. stocks and ETFs.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals