Track record · closed signal

Columbia Banking System Inc (COLB) — closed signal from March 16, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

COLB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$26.43 Published $29.23 Target $31.31 Window close $31.46 Peak
$25.11 – $26.33Entry zone — fair-value band
$26.43Published — price the day we called it
$29.23Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$31.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$31.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 32 days.

Peak price
$31.46
peak on June 12, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$31.31
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
32
Window
March 16, 2026 – June 14, 2026

The thesis — published March 16, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$29.23
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$25.11 – $26.33
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$26.43
published March 16, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Management has a clear plan to make the business more profitable, they are shifting to better loans, and they are buying back a large number of shares to return cash to owners. Recent conference comments support that plan, and the stock has already fallen below its prior trend, so it could rebound short term. But regional banks still move a lot with interest-rate news and credit headlines, so treat this as a cautious, short-term trade rather than a full conviction long-term pick.

Primary drivers

  • Management explained how profits should improve over time
  • Buyback shows management is returning cash and limits downside
  • Shifting to higher-quality loans should make earnings steadier
  • Stock is beaten up and could rebound if rates stay calm

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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