Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from March 16, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 14, 2026 — +11.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$180.00 – $186.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$184.69Published — price the day we called it

$208.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$205.19Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 39 days.

At window close

+11.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+28.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+11.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$205.19

last close inside the window, ended June 14, 2026

Peak price

$236.54

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$208.70

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$180.00 – $186.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$184.69

published March 16, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is still central to strong demand for AI servers, highlighted by recent supply-chain reports. One analyst picked it but another avoided it because many investors already own it and short-term swings are bigger. Treat it as a pullback buying chance, not something to chase upward.

Primary drivers

Supply-chain notes point to steady demand for AI servers
Company remains top-tier even though many own it
Recent pullback gives a better entry than buying strength
High expectations make the stock more volatile and risky

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 39 days

Lyra published NVDA at $184.69 with expected growth of 13%. The thesis pointed to steady demand for artificial intelligence servers, NVIDIA's strong position, and a recent pullback as a better entry. It also noted that broad ownership and high expectations made short-term swings riskier.

The price reached the $208.70 target in 39 days. It later peaked at $236.54 on May 14, a gain of 28.1%. By the end of the window, it had fallen to $205.19, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out within the measured period.

What happened during the window

On March 16, NVIDIA announced expanded open model families for agentic systems, robotics, autonomous vehicles, and healthcare. On May 20, the company reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals