Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from March 16, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 14, 2026 — +13.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$980.00 – $1,005.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$996.67Published — price the day we called it

$1,126.23Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,182.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,133.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 73 days.

At window close

+13.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+11.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,133.00

last close inside the window, ended June 14, 2026

Peak price

$1,182.73

peak on June 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,126.23

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$980.00 – $1,005.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$996.67

published March 16, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly is being recommended because it combines steady growth with more stable earnings than many fast-moving stocks. Recent good trial results for children and continued strong demand for tirzepatide make the company's sales story stronger, and the recent price pullback gives a cleaner chance to buy, though drug-pricing headlines remain a risk.

Primary drivers

Strong ongoing demand for tirzepatide supports sales growth
Positive pediatric trial boosts confidence in the drug pipeline
Healthcare business is comparatively steady in volatile markets
Buying on a pullback improves potential reward versus risk

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 73 days

Lyra published the LLY thesis on March 16 at $996.67, with 13% expected growth and a $1,126.23 target. The thesis pointed to ongoing tirzepatide demand, positive pediatric trial results, steadier healthcare earnings, and a pullback that offered a cleaner entry, while drug-pricing headlines remained a risk.

Inside the window, LLY reached the target in 73 days. It peaked at $1,182.73 on June 8, up 18.7%, then ended the window at $1,133. The close remained above the target. The published thesis played out in full according to the measured price result.

What happened during the window

On April 30, Lilly reported that first-quarter revenue rose 56% to $19.8 billion and raised its full-year guidance. On May 6, it announced an additional $4.5 billion investment across two Indiana manufacturing sites.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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