Track record · closed signal

Amphenol Corporation (APH) — closed signal from March 16, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 14, 2026 — +9.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$140.11 Published $162.53 Target $153.80 Window close $159.80 Peak
$136.00 – $141.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$140.11Published — price the day we called it
$162.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$159.80Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$153.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 88% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+9.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+14.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+11.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$153.80
last close inside the window, ended June 14, 2026
Peak price
$159.80
peak on June 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published March 16, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$162.53
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$136.00 – $141.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$140.11
published March 16, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Checklist: - Explain why the stock looks attractive - Describe the growth story clearly - Say why risk looks reasonable now - Suggest short-term entry context Why this matters: Recent company results show record sales tied to AI and data-center work, and the stock has pulled back enough to offer a less risky entry. It gives exposure to infrastructure growth without being a crowded chip name.

Primary drivers

  • Stronger demand from AI and data centers
  • Quarterly sales show the company is delivering
  • Sales across many industries lowers single-cycle risk
  • Recent pullback gives a clearer buying area

How it played out

APH: the target was not reached

Lyra published APH at $140.11 with expected growth of 16% over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to demand from artificial intelligence and data centers, recent quarterly sales, exposure across several industries, and a pullback that put the stock within the cited $136 to $141 entry area.

APH rose to a peak of $159.80 on June 10, a gain of 14.1%. That peak stayed below the $162.53 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $153.80. The thesis partially played out, with a substantial rise that fell short of the published expectation.

What happened during the window

On April 29, 2026, Amphenol reported first-quarter sales of $7.6 billion, up 58% from the prior-year quarter. It also reported that it had completed the acquisition of CommScope's CCS business.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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