Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 25, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 23, 2025 — +4.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$173.72 Published $217.13 Target $182.15 Window close $195.61 Peak
$164.96 – $174.96Entry zone — fair-value band
$173.72Published — price the day we called it
$217.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$195.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$182.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 50% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+4.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$182.15
last close inside the window, ended October 23, 2025
Peak price
$195.61
peak on October 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$217.13
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$164.96 – $174.96
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$173.72
published July 25, 2025
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

After dropping 9% since its stock split, NVIDIA’s price has steadied and is still trading a bit above its recent average. Investor interest is among the strongest in the market, and the wider tech rally led by artificial-intelligence firms is steering money back into top chip makers. Two conferences in Aug and Sep should spotlight the new Blackwell chips and may push forecasts higher. The share could reach $215 in about three months.

Primary drivers

  • With about 92% of data-center chip sales, NVIDIA keeps rivals far behind.
  • Aug and Sep chip demos may spark interest and push analysts to raise targets.
  • Strong buying ratings draw large investment funds looking for fast-growing tech.
  • The stock stayed firm after the split, showing buyers still trust the uptrend.

How it played out

NVDA: thesis only partially played out

Lyra published NVDA at $173.72 on 2025-07-25 with 25% expected growth. The thesis pointed to firm post-split trading, strong investor interest, data-center chip share, buying ratings, and Aug and Sep chip demos around Blackwell. The expected destination was $217.13 in the short-term window.

Inside the window, NVDA rose but stayed below the target. It peaked at $195.61 on 2025-10-10, a 12.6% gain, then ended at $182.15 on 2025-10-23. It never got there. The thesis partially played out, because the stock rose, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On August 27, 2025, NVIDIA reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.7 billion and data-center revenue of $41.1 billion. The company also said Blackwell Data Center revenue grew 17% sequentially.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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