Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 22, 2025 — +5.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$164.96 – $167.96Entry zone — fair-value band

$170.76Published — price the day we called it

$208.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$195.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$180.27Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+5.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+14.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$180.27

last close inside the window, ended October 22, 2025

Peak price

$195.61

peak on October 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$208.30

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$164.96 – $167.96

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$170.76

published July 24, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA’s data-center sales doubled last quarter and new deals like Aeye’s self-driving sensors show how widely its chips are being used. After a 19% pullback, the shares trade at their lowest price compared with expected earnings this cycle, even with a $50 billion backlog. The firm has workarounds for export limits, and August results could lift the stock toward about $194 within three months.

Primary drivers

Data-center sales jumped 118%, and a $50 billion order book locks in demand.
Aeye partnership shows car makers want NVIDIA tech, widening its customer base.
At 39 times expected profit, the stock is cheaper than usual for its growth pace.
Price is coiling; a move above $174 could point toward roughly $194.

How it played out

NVDA: thesis rose but target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at $170.76 on 2025-07-24 with expected growth of 22% toward $208.30. The thesis pointed to data-center sales up 118%, a $50 billion order book, wider customer demand from Aeye, a cheaper valuation at 39 times expected profit, and a possible move above $174 toward roughly $194.

Inside the window, the stock rose to $195.61 on 2025-10-10, a peak gain of 14.6%. It stayed below the $208.30 target and ended the window at $180.27 on 2025-10-22. The thesis partially played out. Price moved in the expected direction, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On August 27, 2025, Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $46.74 billion and data-center revenue of $41.1 billion. On September 22, 2025, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a partnership tied to artificial intelligence data centers and Nvidia systems.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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