Track record · closed signal

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) — closed signal from March 15, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$93.06 Published $105.16 Target $91.10 Window close $100.76 Peak
$90.00 – $94.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$93.06Published — price the day we called it
$105.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$100.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$91.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$100.76
peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$91.10
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
March 15, 2026 – June 13, 2026

The thesis — published March 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$105.16
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$90.00 – $94.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$93.06
published March 15, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Analysts like Schwab because its business is picking up, the stock pulled back only a little, and there are clear, practical reasons for it to rerate: recent February inflows of client money and a better revenue forecast. That gives the stock a real operating story. The main risk is that broker shares can stall if markets stay volatile or rates are uncertain.

Primary drivers

  • More client money coming in helps short-term momentum
  • A raised revenue forecast gives clearer reasons to own the stock
  • Price is not extended after a controlled pullback
  • Company fundamentals look better than many peers

How it played out

SCHW: thesis partly played out, target was not reached

Lyra published SCHW at 93.06 on 2026-03-15, with an expected 13% gain and a 105.16 target by 2026-06-13. The thesis pointed to more client money coming in, a raised revenue forecast, a controlled pullback, and company fundamentals that looked better than many peers.

Inside the window, SCHW rose to 100.76 on 2026-04-15, for an 8.3% peak gain. It never reached 105.16. By 2026-06-13, it ended at 91.10. The call partly worked because the stock rose inside the window, but the published target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-16, MarketWatch reported that Charles Schwab had first-quarter 2026 revenue of $6.48 billion, with earnings per share of $1.37. The same report said March core net new assets were $79.7 billion and active brokerage accounts reached 39.1 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals