Track record · closed signal

Mastercard Inc. (MA) — closed signal from March 15, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$488.00 – $503.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$497.99Published — price the day we called it

$547.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$534.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$489.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 73% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$534.21

peak on April 29, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+7.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$489.98

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

March 15, 2026 – June 13, 2026

The thesis — published March 15, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$547.79

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$488.00 – $503.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$497.99

published March 15, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Mastercard is a high-quality payments company that could recover, but it likely won't lead gains right away. The company has steady payment systems and recent positive news on price targets and regulation that could help use of digital assets. For the next few months this looks like a patient buy rather than a fast mover.

Primary drivers

Global payments network produces steady, reliable revenue
Higher analyst target gives outside support to the stock view
Regulatory steps could make digital payments easier to adopt
Recent pullback creates space for recovery if markets calm

How it played out

MA: target was not reached

Lyra published MA at 497.99 on 2026-03-15 with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to Mastercard's global payments network, a higher analyst target, regulatory steps that could help digital payments, and a recent pullback that left room for recovery if markets calmed. It described the setup as a patient buy, not a fast mover.

Inside the window, MA rose to a peak of 534.21 on 2026-04-29, a 7.3% gain. The target was 547.79, and it never got there. By 2026-06-13, it ended at 489.98. The thesis partially played out, but the measured target was missed.

What happened during the window

On April 30, 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported that Mastercard's first-quarter profit and sales rose. The same day, Barron's reported that the stock fell after Mastercard reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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