Track record · closed signal

UP Fintech Holding Ltd. (TIGR) — closed signal from July 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 22, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$11.31 Published $14.14 Target $9.60 Window close $13.55 Peak
$10.60 – $11.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$11.31Published — price the day we called it
$14.14Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$9.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 79% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$13.55
peak on August 25, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$9.60
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 24, 2025 – October 22, 2025

The thesis — published July 24, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.14
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$10.60 – $11.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$11.31
published July 24, 2025
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Citi now recommends buying TIGR and sees it reaching $14. The firm just won a crypto trading permit in Singapore, bringing roughly four times the usual buying interest and pushing the price past a long-standing ceiling. First-quarter profit beat forecasts by 40% and client assets grew 35%, proving momentum. Shares trade at only 14 times next year’s earnings, leaving room to rise once today’s hot demand cools near the recent average price.

Primary drivers

  • Citi says Buy with a $14 goal, shining a spotlight and pointing to clear upside.
  • Q1 profit beat and 35% jump in client assets show faster earnings power.
  • Singapore crypto permit opens a high-margin business, lifting sales soon.
  • Heavy trading lifted price above $10.4, clearing sellers and confirming trend.

How it played out

TIGR: thesis partly played out, target missed

Lyra published TIGR on 2025-07-24 at $11.31 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth. The thesis pointed to Citi's Buy call with a $14 goal, first-quarter profit beating forecasts by 40%, client assets growing 35%, a Singapore crypto trading permit, and heavy trading above $10.4.

Inside the window, TIGR rose to $13.55 on 2025-08-25, a 19.8% peak gain. That stayed below the $14.14 target, so the target was never reached. By 2025-10-22, it ended at $9.60. The thesis partly played out, then failed to hold through the window.

What happened during the window

On Aug. 27, 2025, UP Fintech reported second-quarter revenue of $138.7 million and earnings per share near $0.23. The company also reported 39,800 new customers in the second quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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