Track record · closed signal

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI) — closed signal from March 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NWBI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$12.36 Published $13.35 Target $14.58 Window close $14.68 Peak
$12.00 – $12.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$12.36Published — price the day we called it
$13.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$14.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

Peak price
$14.68
peak on June 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$14.58
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
26
Window
March 13, 2026 – June 11, 2026

The thesis — published March 13, 2026

Predicted growth
+8%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.35
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.00 – $12.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$12.36
published March 13, 2026
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NWBI looks cheap and has some good signs: sales are rising, insiders are buying, and the valuation could improve. However, the stock is thinly traded and the likely path to higher prices is slow. Because the setup feels like a long, patient re-rating rather than a quick move, money may be better used in ideas with clearer short-term momentum.

Primary drivers

  • Insiders buying shares adds confidence in the stock
  • Sales have increased, showing the business is improving
  • Local bank stocks can recover from low valuations over time
  • Light trading makes quick moves less likely and riskier

How it played out

NWBI: target reached in 26 days

Lyra published NWBI at $12.36 on 2026-03-13 with expected growth of 8%. The thesis pointed to insider buying, rising sales, a possible valuation recovery in local bank stocks, and light trading that made quick moves less likely and riskier.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $13.35 target in 26 days. It kept rising and peaked at $14.68 on 2026-06-11, with a peak gain of 18.8%. It ended at $14.58. The thesis played out, and the move was stronger than the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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