Embraer S.A. (ERJ) — closed signal from July 24, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 22, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 7 days.
The thesis — published July 24, 2025
Embraer has $29.7 billion in orders waiting and just shipped 30% more planes, yet the stock has slipped. With another major air-show in July that could add even more deals, we see room for the price to move up to about $55 in the next three months. In short, plenty of demand is lining up while the share price still looks cheap, making a rebound likely as investors take notice.
Primary drivers
- A record $29.7 billion order list gives clear sales and profit visibility for years.
- Shares look deeply oversold, often a sign of a short-term price snap-back.
- July Farnborough air-show could reveal new Saudi or defense deals, boosting demand.
- Parts shortages are easing, supporting the company’s 2025 delivery targets and faith.
How it played out
ERJ: target reached in 7 days
Lyra published ERJ at 49.41 on July 24, 2025, with expected growth of 15% and a target of 56.34. The thesis pointed to a $29.7 billion order list, shipments up 30%, a July air-show that could add deals, easing parts shortages, and a stock that had slipped.
Inside the window, ERJ reached the target in 7 days. It kept rising and peaked at 63.45 on October 21, with a peak gain of 28.4%. The window ended at 62.53 on October 22. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the published target.
What happened during the window
On September 10, 2025, Embraer announced an Avelo order for 50 E195-E2 jets, with options for 50 more, according to Business Insider. On October 22, 2025, Investors.com reported that Embraer had announced a Q3 backlog of $31.3 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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