Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from March 12, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$39.52 Published $44.26 Target $37.73 Window close $43.08 Peak
$38.60 – $39.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$39.52Published — price the day we called it
$44.26Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$43.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$37.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$43.08
peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$37.73
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
March 12, 2026 – June 10, 2026

The thesis — published March 12, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$44.26
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$38.60 – $39.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$39.52
published March 12, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust looks promising because its business is steady healthcare properties and recent company comments were positive. The stock may get extra buying when it joins the S&P MidCap index, but current price action hasn't fully turned higher. That means buying a small dip is smarter than jumping in now.

Primary drivers

  • Joining the index can bring automatic buying from investment funds and extra demand
  • Rent and fee income from healthcare buildings tends to be stable and defensive
  • Management's recent comments were positive and support the outlook
  • Buying on mild weakness reduces the chance of overpaying before momentum improves

How it played out

CTRE: target missed after a 9% peak gain

Lyra published CTRE on 2026-03-12 at $39.52, looking for 12% growth in a short-term window. The thesis pointed to index buying, steady rent and fee income from healthcare buildings, positive management comments, and waiting for mild weakness before momentum improved.

Inside the window, CTRE rose to $43.08 on 2026-05-14, a 9% peak gain. It stayed below the $44.26 target and never reached it. By 2026-06-10, it ended at $37.73. The thesis partially played out on the rise, but the target was missed and the close was below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-16, Barron's reported that CareTrust had raised its quarterly dividend to $0.39 per share, payable on 2026-04-15 to shareholders of record on 2026-03-31.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals