Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from March 11, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$72.50 – $75.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$75.03Published — price the day we called it

$89.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$80.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$70.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$80.82

peak on May 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+7.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$70.38

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

March 11, 2026 – June 9, 2026

The thesis — published March 11, 2026

Predicted growth

+19%

over the measurement window

Target price

$89.28

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$72.50 – $75.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$75.03

published March 11, 2026

Confidence

81%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

- Explain the setup and risks - Show why the partnership matters - Recommend a cautious entry near support Uber pairs a steady ride and delivery business with a new partnership that could speed up robotaxis without big factory costs. That gives a near-term story to watch, while the main business helps limit downside. Be careful: excitement can run ahead of real results.

Primary drivers

Zoox deal gives short-term robotaxi possibility
Ride and delivery businesses provide steady revenue
Partnership lets Uber gain robotaxi upside with less capital
Improving price action shows more steady buying over time

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at 75.03 on 2026-03-11 with expected growth of 19%. The target was 89.28. The thesis pointed to the Zoox deal as a short-term robotaxi possibility, steady ride and delivery revenue, lower-capital exposure to robotaxi upside, and improving price action. It also called for a cautious entry near support.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at 80.82 on 2026-05-07, a 7.7% gain. It never reached 89.28. By 2026-06-09, it ended at 70.38. The thesis partially played out in price direction at the peak, but the target missed and the close was below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-05-06, Uber reported first-quarter revenue of $13.2 billion, with trips up 20% and monthly active users up 17%. The same day, MarketWatch reported that delivery gross bookings rose 28% to $25.99 billion and delivery revenue rose 34.2% to $5.07 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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