Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from March 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 8, 2026 — +13.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$176.00 – $184.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$183.53Published — price the day we called it

$198.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$208.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 36 days.

At window close

+13.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+28.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+9.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$208.64

last close inside the window, ended June 8, 2026

Peak price

$236.54

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 10, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$198.21

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$176.00 – $184.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$183.53

published March 10, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia's business is strong and the stock is widely traded, but right now there isn't a clear company-specific event to drive price higher. The current market setup is crowded, so this is a timing call: wait for a clearer, lower-risk entry instead of buying now.

Primary drivers

Growing demand for chips that speed up AI tasks
Big trading volume makes it easy for large investors to buy
No recent news tied directly to Nvidia's own results
Many investors already hold it, making timing riskier

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 36 days

Lyra published NVDA at 183.53 on 2026-03-10 with an 8% expected gain and a 198.21 target. The thesis pointed to demand for chips that speed up artificial intelligence tasks and heavy trading volume. It also said there was no clear company-specific event, and that crowded ownership made timing riskier.

Inside the window, NVDA reached the target in 36 days. The stock later peaked at 236.54 on 2026-05-14, with a 28.9% gain. It ended the window at 208.64. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-05-20, Nvidia reported first-quarter revenue of $81.62 billion and earnings of $1.87 per share. On 2026-06-08, Tom's Hardware reported that Nvidia and SK hynix had signed a multi-year memory co-development and supply agreement.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals