Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from March 9, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 7, 2026 — -3.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$38.20 – $39.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$39.28Published — price the day we called it

$43.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$43.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$37.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 97% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-3.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$37.97

last close inside the window, ended June 7, 2026

Peak price

$43.08

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 9, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$43.21

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$38.20 – $39.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$39.28

published March 9, 2026

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust looks like a more steady short-term REIT idea because recent company news supports operations and a coming index inclusion could bring automatic buying from investment funds. Valuation still shows room to move up, but the price pattern isn't fully healthy, so buying on small drops makes more sense than chasing a weak bounce.

Primary drivers

Improving earnings and analyst estimate revisions support the business
Index inclusion may trigger automatic buying from investment funds
Valuation analysis still points to further upside after the recent rise
Senior housing properties tend to hold up better in mixed markets

How it played out

CTRE: peak stayed below the target

Lyra published CTRE on 2026-03-09 at 39.28 as a short-term REIT signal with 10% expected growth. The thesis pointed to improving earnings and analyst estimate revisions, possible index inclusion buying from investment funds, valuation room after the recent rise, and senior housing properties holding up better in mixed markets. It also said the price pattern was not fully healthy.

Inside the window, CTRE rose to 43.08 on 2026-05-14, a 9.7% peak gain. The target was 43.21, and it never got there. By 2026-06-07, it ended at 37.97. The thesis partially played out, then faded before the window closed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals