Track record · closed signal

The Boeing Company (BA) — closed signal from March 7, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$224.00 – $229.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$231.11Published — price the day we called it

$258.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$244.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$217.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$244.01

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+5.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$217.42

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

March 7, 2026 – June 5, 2026

The thesis — published March 7, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$258.84

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$224.00 – $229.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$231.11

published March 7, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Boeing could jump if big order news from China and a defense deal for Japan lead to more deliveries and better sentiment. But the company still shows underlying weaknesses and is sensitive to higher oil prices and slower growth. This makes it a short-term, headline-driven idea rather than a safe, long-term pick.

Primary drivers

A potential China plane order could raise future delivery hopes
Defense-related news improves near-term investor mood
Company looks beaten down, so a tactical bounce is possible
Buying on a pullback limits the risk of chasing headlines

How it played out

BA: thesis only partly played out

Lyra published BA on March 7 at $231.11 as a short-term, headline-driven idea. The thesis expected 12% growth and pointed to a potential China plane order, defense-related news, a tactical bounce from a beaten-down setup, and buying on a pullback to avoid chasing headlines.

Inside the window, BA rose to a peak of $244.01 on May 14, a 5.6% gain. It never reached the $258.84 target. By June 5, it ended at $217.42. The thesis partly played out because the stock did bounce, but the target was missed and the window closed below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On April 22, Boeing reported first-quarter sales of $22.2 billion and a $7 million loss. On May 14, the Wall Street Journal reported that BA fell 4.7% after comments about a China plane order.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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