Track record · closed signal

Seadrill Limited (SDRL) — closed signal from July 23, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 21, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

SDRL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$29.42 Published $37.07 Target $29.85 Window close $34.68 Peak
$28.00 – $30.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$29.42Published — price the day we called it
$37.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$34.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$29.85Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 69% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$34.68
peak on September 17, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+17.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$29.85
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 23, 2025 – October 21, 2025

The thesis — published July 23, 2025

Predicted growth
+26%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$28.00 – $30.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$29.42
published July 23, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Even after paying a $53 million legal bill, Seadrill has contracts worth $2.8 billion lined up and is still charging more than $430,000 a day for its drilling rigs. The share price is now sitting around its recent average price and many investors are optimistic. A higher price target from BTIG and talk of takeovers could push the stock above $31, which might trigger a quick move toward $37 within about three months. Swings in oil prices and more legal issues are the main risks.

Primary drivers

  • Contracts worth $2.8B secure revenue until 2027, giving steady future income.
  • Daily rig rates above $430,000 support strong cash flow and higher profits.
  • BTIG lifted its price goal and a 98 optimism score shows large investors' interest.
  • Roughly 8% of shares are shorted, so good news could spark fast buying.

How it played out

SDRL: thesis partly played out, target missed

Lyra published SDRL at $29.42 on 2025-07-23, with an entry zone of $28 to $30 and expected growth of 26%. The thesis pointed to a $53 million legal bill already paid, contracts worth $2.8 billion, rig rates above $430,000 a day, a higher BTIG price goal, a 98 optimism score, takeover talk, and roughly 8% of shares shorted.

Inside the window from 2025-07-23 to 2025-10-21, SDRL rose to $34.68 on 2025-09-17. That was a 17.9% peak gain, but it stayed below the $37.07 target. It ended at $29.85. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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