Track record · closed signal

The Mosaic Company (MOS) — closed signal from March 6, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 4, 2026 — -12.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MOS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$26.73 Published $29.94 Target $23.30 Window close $32.25 Peak
$25.80 – $26.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$26.73Published — price the day we called it
$29.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$32.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$23.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 6 days.

At window close
-12.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+20.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+12.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$23.30
last close inside the window, ended June 4, 2026
Peak price
$32.25
peak on March 12, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
6

The thesis — published March 6, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$29.94
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$25.80 – $26.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$26.73
published March 6, 2026
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Mosaic could bounce in the next few weeks but it's not a long-term sure thing. The company now pays a dividend which helps limit downside, but a government antitrust inquiry and a big bank downgrade make the stock very sensitive to headlines. If fertilizer sentiment steadies and no new regulatory trouble appears, traders can try a short-term rebound with tight risk limits.

Primary drivers

  • Dividend gives investors a reason to hold through swings
  • Recent selling makes a short-term bounce more likely
  • Fertilizer demand can recover quickly if conditions improve
  • Regulatory probe makes position size and stops important

How it played out

MOS: target reached in 6 days

On March 6, 2026, Lyra published a short-term MOS rebound thesis at $26.73. It looked for 12% growth to $29.94. The thesis pointed to the dividend as support through swings, recent selling as a setup for a bounce, possible recovery in fertilizer demand, and regulatory risk that made tight risk limits important.

Inside the window, MOS rose fast. It reached $32.25 on March 12, with a peak gain of 20.7%, and reached the target in 6 days. It did not hold those gains. By June 4, it ended at $23.30. The thesis played out on the target, then reversed before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On May 11, 2026, Barron's reported that Mosaic posted a first-quarter net loss of $258 million and adjusted earnings of 5 cents per share. The same report said the company withdrew its phosphate production guidance and cut 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $1.25 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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