Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from March 6, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 4, 2026 — -4.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$38.50 – $39.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$39.18Published — price the day we called it

$43.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$43.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$37.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 100% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-4.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+12.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$37.44

last close inside the window, ended June 4, 2026

Peak price

$43.08

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$43.10

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$38.50 – $39.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$39.18

published March 6, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust looks like a lower-risk pick for the next few months. Recent analyst support, clearer guidance from the company, and more investment activity make the business outlook steadier than many rebound candidates. The stock fell sharply and needs time to prove a durable rise, so it is most appealing near the lower price range for income and modest growth.

Primary drivers

Analyst support and clearer company guidance
Expanding healthcare properties should add revenue
Recent selling makes entry less risky near support
Reliable income from assets helps in choppy markets

How it played out

CTRE: thesis peaked near target, then faded

Lyra published CTRE at $39.18 on March 6, 2026, with 10% expected growth over the short term. The thesis pointed to analyst support, clearer company guidance, expanding healthcare properties, recent selling near support, and reliable income from assets in choppy markets.

Inside the window, CTRE rose to $43.08 on May 14, 2026, with a 10% peak gain. The target was $43.10, and the stock stayed below it. By June 4, 2026, it ended at $37.44. The thesis partially played out, but it did not reach the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals