Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from March 5, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$50.02 Published $56.02 Target $52.40 Window close $55.40 Peak
$49.00 – $50.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$50.02Published — price the day we called it
$56.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$55.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$52.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$55.40
peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$52.40
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
March 5, 2026 – June 3, 2026

The thesis — published March 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$56.02
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$49.00 – $50.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$50.02
published March 5, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America is a relatively steady bank that could work for short-term trades. Recent research said card payments are holding up, which helps the whole sector. Filings show some investors are positioning in the stock. The price looks like it fell more than it should, so buying close to the support level and being patient may be the safer play. Main danger: big swings if interest rates move suddenly.

Primary drivers

  • Diversified bank with steadier performance than riskier names
  • Research shows payment networks are holding up, helping the sector
  • Price fell enough that buying slowly near support can be advantageous
  • Bank group can move quickly on interest-rate or credit news

How it played out

BAC: stock rose close but missed the target

Lyra published BAC at $50.02 on 2026-03-05 for a short-term window ending 2026-06-03. The thesis expected 12% growth and pointed to a diversified bank, payment networks holding up, a price that had fallen near support, and sensitivity to interest-rate or credit news.

Inside the window, BAC peaked at $55.40 on 2026-04-15, a 10.8% gain. It stayed below the $56.02 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended at $52.40. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-15, Bank of America reported first-quarter profit of $8.6 billion and revenue of $30.27 billion. On the same date, MarketWatch reported that the stock rose 2.6% after the results.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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