Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from March 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$95.71 Published $107.19 Target $87.61 Window close $100.76 Peak
$92.00 – $96.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$95.71Published — price the day we called it
$107.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$100.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$87.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$100.76
peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$87.61
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
March 4, 2026 – June 2, 2026

The thesis — published March 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$107.19
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$92.00 – $96.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$95.71
published March 4, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

SCHW could be a short-term trade over the next few months if the financial sector calms and worries about interest rates fade. Buying makes the most sense when the stock drops into a steady trading range. The Forge Global deal makes the company's private-markets business more believable, but integration costs and market swings are real risks.

Primary drivers

  • Forge deal gives Schwab more private-markets options for clients
  • Earnings updates keep focus on execution and client engagement
  • Stock could recover if market volatility eases and rates stabilize
  • Integration costs and expense pressure mean buy pullbacks, not rushed entries

How it played out

SCHW: target was not reached

Lyra published SCHW on 2026-03-04 at $95.71 as a short-term trade. The thesis expected 12% growth over the next few months. It pointed to the Forge deal, execution and client engagement in earnings updates, calmer market volatility, and steadier rates. It also flagged integration costs and expense pressure as risks.

Inside the window from 2026-03-04 to 2026-06-02, SCHW peaked at $100.76 on 2026-04-15, a 5.3% gain. That stayed below the $107.19 target. It never got there. The stock ended at $87.61, so the published thesis only partly played out and missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-16, Charles Schwab reported first-quarter 2026 results. MarketWatch said revenue rose to a quarterly record, but missed Wall Street projections. The same report said the company opened 1.3 million new brokerage accounts and March core net new assets reached $79.7 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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