Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from March 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 2, 2026 — +0.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$140.00 – $150.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$151.04Published — price the day we called it

$181.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$163.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$152.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 42% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+0.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+11.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$152.17

last close inside the window, ended June 2, 2026

Peak price

$163.69

peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$181.24

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$140.00 – $150.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$151.04

published March 4, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is leading in AI and defense software, but the stock has risen a lot already. Insiders planning to sell shares could add selling pressure and cause short-term drops. Buying on a pullback gives a better chance to catch further gains, but expect big day-to-day swings tied to news and global events; size positions accordingly.

Primary drivers

Strong AI and defense demand driving investor interest
Insider selling may add short-term selling pressure
Stock has run up; better to wait for a pullback entry
Geopolitical events can cause large swings; keep positions small

How it played out

PLTR: target was not reached

Lyra published PLTR on 2026-03-04 at 151.04 with 20% expected growth and a 181.24 target. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence and defense demand, but also warned that insider selling, a prior run-up, and geopolitical news could create short-term pressure. It preferred a pullback entry rather than chasing strength.

Inside the window from 2026-03-04 to 2026-06-02, PLTR rose but never reached 181.24. The peak was 163.69 on 2026-06-01, a 8.4% gain. It ended at 152.17. The thesis partially played out because the stock gained, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On May 4, 2026, Palantir reported first-quarter revenue of $1.63 billion, up 85% year over year, and raised full-year revenue guidance to 71% growth. On May 5, 2026, MarketWatch reported that the stock fell 2.7% after hours despite the earnings beat.

Palantir posts its fastest revenue growth ever while calling out 'AI slop'

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PLTR signals