Track record · closed signal

New Gold Inc. (NGD) — closed signal from March 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 2, 2026 — +0.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NGD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$11.70 – $12.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$12.13Published — price the day we called it

$15.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$12.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 18% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+0.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+11.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.16

last close inside the window, ended June 2, 2026

Peak price

$12.73

peak on March 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$15.52

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$11.70 – $12.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$12.13

published March 4, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

New Gold had a big move higher but then some selling, leaving the stock cheaper than before. It looks oversold and recent buying interest suggests a bounce over the next 0-3 months if gold stays steady. Ongoing news about earnings and valuation gives buyers a reason to step in. The main danger is sharp drops if commodity sentiment shifts.

Primary drivers

News about earnings keeps people watching short-term results
Valuation talk encourages buyers to buy price dips
Sensitivity to gold helps when investors seek safe assets
Being oversold makes a short-term rebound more likely if support holds

How it played out

NGD: the target was not reached

Lyra published NGD at $12.13 on 2026-03-04 with a short-term thesis for 28% growth. The thesis pointed to an oversold setup, recent buying interest, earnings attention, valuation talk, gold sensitivity, and support holding as the conditions for a bounce over the next 0-3 months.

Inside the window from 2026-03-04 to 2026-06-02, NGD peaked at $12.73 on 2026-03-23, a 5% gain. It stayed below the $15.52 target and ended at $12.16. The thesis only partially played out: the stock rose, but the move was small and never got to the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NGD signals