e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) — closed signal from July 2, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published July 2, 2025
On June 30 many index funds had to dump e.l.f. shares for rule changes, so the price fell even though people still feel very positive about the company. This quarter e.l.f. begins selling the high-profit Rhode skin-care line, which could lift earnings. The share price now hovers near its recent average price, a spot where past declines have often reversed. Time magazine just named e.l.f. one of the most influential firms, which could push the stock back toward $150 within three months.
Primary drivers
- Index funds dumped shares on Jun 30, causing a drop but clearing forced selling
- Time magazine listing on Jul 2 renews public buzz and could draw new investors
- Buying Rhode adds a higher-profit skin-care line that can lift future revenue
- Price now looks oversold by common measures, so quick rebounds often follow
How it played out
ELF: strong rebound stopped short of target
Lyra published ELF on 2025-07-02 at 129.4, with 18% expected growth and a 152.69 target. The thesis pointed to forced index selling on Jun 30, renewed public attention from the Time listing on Jul 2, the Rhode skin-care acquisition, and an oversold setup near its recent average price.
Inside the window, the stock rose to 150.99 on 2025-09-17, a 16.7% peak gain. It stayed below the 152.69 target, so it never got there. By 2025-09-30, it ended at 132.48. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.
What happened during the window
On Aug 6, 2025, Vogue Business reported that e.l.f. Beauty's fiscal first-quarter net sales rose 9% to $353.7 million and that the Rhode acquisition had closed on Aug 5, 2025. The same report said Rhode was planned for Sephora stores in the U.S. and Canada in September.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.