Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from March 3, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$94.72 Published $108.93 Target $88.74 Window close $100.76 Peak
$90.00 – $95.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$94.72Published — price the day we called it
$108.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$100.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$88.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$100.76
peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$88.74
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
March 3, 2026 – June 1, 2026

The thesis — published March 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$108.93
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$90.00 – $95.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$94.72
published March 3, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Charles Schwab looks like a recovery pick: client assets are growing, the Forge Global deal adds a new business angle, and analysts lifted targets. These facts could make earnings look stronger. The stock is still settling, so buying on weakness is safer than chasing a quick jump. If interest rates calm, a rebound in a few weeks to months is possible.

Primary drivers

  • More new client assets strengthen Schwab's core business and fees
  • Forge deal adds private market services, expanding what Schwab can sell
  • Higher analyst targets can draw attention and more buyer interest
  • Stable interest rates would make the business outlook easier to value

How it played out

SCHW: target was not reached by June 1

Lyra published SCHW on March 3, 2026 at $94.72 for a short-term window through June 1, 2026. The thesis expected 15% growth. It pointed to growing client assets, the Forge Global deal, higher analyst targets, and calmer interest rates as possible support.

Inside the window, SCHW rose to a peak of $100.76 on April 15, a 6.4% gain. That stayed below the $108.93 target. The stock ended the window at $88.74. The thesis only partially played out. Price improved for a while, but it never got there and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On April 16, 2026, MarketWatch reported Schwab's first-quarter results. The report said revenue reached $6.48 billion, earnings per share were $1.37, and March core net new assets were $79.7 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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