Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from March 3, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 1, 2026 — -6.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$90.00 – $95.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$94.72Published — price the day we called it

$108.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$100.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$88.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-6.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+11.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$88.74

last close inside the window, ended June 1, 2026

Peak price

$100.76

peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 3, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$108.93

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$90.00 – $95.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$94.72

published March 3, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Charles Schwab looks like a recovery pick: client assets are growing, the Forge Global deal adds a new business angle, and analysts lifted targets. These facts could make earnings look stronger. The stock is still settling, so buying on weakness is safer than chasing a quick jump. If interest rates calm, a rebound in a few weeks to months is possible.

Primary drivers

More new client assets strengthen Schwab's core business and fees
Forge deal adds private market services, expanding what Schwab can sell
Higher analyst targets can draw attention and more buyer interest
Stable interest rates would make the business outlook easier to value

How it played out

SCHW: target was not reached by June 1

Lyra published SCHW on March 3, 2026 at $94.72 for a short-term window through June 1, 2026. The thesis expected 15% growth. It pointed to growing client assets, the Forge Global deal, higher analyst targets, and calmer interest rates as possible support.

Inside the window, SCHW rose to a peak of $100.76 on April 15, a 6.4% gain. That stayed below the $108.93 target. The stock ended the window at $88.74. The thesis only partially played out. Price improved for a while, but it never got there and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On April 16, 2026, MarketWatch reported Schwab's first-quarter results. The report said revenue reached $6.48 billion, earnings per share were $1.37, and March core net new assets were $79.7 billion.

People are actively managing their money more than ever, Charles Schwab says

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals