Select Medical Holdings Corp. (SEM) — closed signal from March 3, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 1, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 50% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published March 3, 2026
This is a trade that aims to profit from the gap between the current price and the firm $16.50 cash deal price. About 11.8% of holders agreed to support the vote, which makes the deal more likely to close. Because the upside is limited to the deal price, the plan is to capture the small spread in 0-3 months. Bad news on regulation, financing, or timing can quickly widen that gap and increase risk.
Primary drivers
- Firm $16.50 cash offer sets the near-term price
- Rollover holders agreeing to vote increases deal certainty
- Shares move less than typical operating-company trades
- Deal headlines are the clear risk that can widen the gap
How it played out
SEM: target not reached inside the window
Lyra published SEM at $16.25 on 2026-03-03 with expected growth of 4%. The thesis pointed to a firm $16.50 cash offer, rollover holders agreeing to vote, lower share movement than typical operating-company trades, and deal headlines as the clear risk that could widen the gap.
Inside the window, SEM rose to a peak of $16.57 on 2026-05-20, a 2% gain. It stayed below the $16.90 target and never reached it. The stock ended at $16.50 on 2026-06-01. The thesis partially played out: the price moved toward the cited deal level, but the published target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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