Track record · closed signal

UP Fintech Holding Ltd. (TIGR) — closed signal from July 23, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 21, 2025 — -11.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.98 Published $14.27 Target $9.72 Window close $13.55 Peak
$10.00 – $10.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.98Published — price the day we called it
$14.27Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$9.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-11.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+23.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$9.72
last close inside the window, ended October 21, 2025
Peak price
$13.55
peak on August 25, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 23, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.27
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$10.00 – $10.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.98
published July 23, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock jumped 25% after a major bank said it could reach $14 and trading activity was three times higher than usual. Even so, the price is only about 9% above its recent average. Money from its new crypto service is doubling and progress toward a Singapore license lowers rule-change worries. If shares slide to $10-$10.8, they could bounce toward $14 within three months, helped by 12% of traders betting against it.

Primary drivers

  • Citi sees $14, backing the view that fast-growing crypto fees lift earnings
  • Triple-size trading day shows strong interest; past dips often restart climbs
  • Singapore license progress cuts rule worries and opens doors to more clients
  • 12% short sellers may rush to buy back if price climbs, pushing shares higher

How it played out

TIGR: the target was not reached

Lyra published TIGR at $10.98 on July 23, 2025, with a short-term thesis for 30% growth toward $14.27. The thesis pointed to a major bank's $14 view, higher trading activity, rising crypto-service money, Singapore license progress, and 12% of traders betting against the stock.

Inside the window, TIGR rose to $13.55 on August 25, 2025, for a 23.4% peak gain. That stayed below the $14.27 target. It never got there. By October 21, 2025, the stock ended at $9.72. The thesis partially played out, then faded before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On Aug. 27, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported that UP Fintech reported second-quarter earnings per share of nearly 23 cents and revenue of $138.7 million. It also reported 39,800 new customers in the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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