Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from March 2, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 31, 2026 — +7.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$145.95 Published $180.98 Target $156.54 Window close $162.40 Peak
$140.00 – $146.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$145.95Published — price the day we called it
$180.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$162.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$156.54Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+7.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+10.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$156.54
last close inside the window, ended May 31, 2026
Peak price
$162.40
peak on March 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published March 2, 2026

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$180.98
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$140.00 – $146.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$145.95
published March 2, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a short-term trade tied to defense and AI headlines. News about Operation Epic Fury showed how Palantir's platform is used in military planning, and a separate report said the stock jumped during that news cycle. That attention can keep buyers interested, but fast jumps often reverse. Only take this as a tactical bet and be ready to sell if buying interest fades.

Primary drivers

  • Media on Operation Epic Fury raises interest in defense-AI use
  • News spikes can keep buyers focused on the stock short-term
  • Government defense deals may grow if geopolitical risks rise
  • Fast price moves mean you should limit losses and act quickly

How it played out

PLTR: rose, but the target was not reached

Lyra published PLTR on 2026-03-02 at $145.95 as a short-term trade with 24% expected growth. The thesis pointed to defense and artificial intelligence headlines, Operation Epic Fury coverage, short-term buyer attention, possible government defense deal growth, and the risk that fast moves could reverse.

Inside the window from 2026-03-02 to 2026-05-31, PLTR rose to a $162.40 peak on 2026-03-24, a 11.3% gain. It stayed below the $180.98 target. The window ended at $156.54. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-05-04, Palantir reported first-quarter revenue of $1.63 billion, up 85% year over year. It also raised full-year revenue guidance to $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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