Track record · closed signal

AAON, Inc. (AAON) — closed signal from March 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 31, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AAON price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$108.38 Published $127.89 Target $142.26 Window close $148.88 Peak
$104.00 – $109.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$108.38Published — price the day we called it
$127.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$148.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$142.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 66 days.

Peak price
$148.88
peak on May 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+37.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$142.26
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
66
Window
March 2, 2026 – May 31, 2026

The thesis — published March 2, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$127.89
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$104.00 – $109.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$108.38
published March 2, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AAON makes HVAC gear used in data centers. Recent earnings showed a $1.3 billion backlog for core products and management expects higher sales and improving profit margins next year. Investors interested in companies supplying AI-related infrastructure may keep buying, but new factory ramp-ups could squeeze margins in the short term. Consider buying on pullbacks rather than chasing price jumps.

Primary drivers

  • $1.3B backlog shows strong demand from data centers
  • 2026 sales and margin guidance could lift investor interest
  • AI-related infrastructure demand may keep buyers nearby
  • New factory ramps could hurt margins temporarily

How it played out

AAON: target reached in 66 days

Lyra published AAON on 2026-03-02 at 108.38, with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to HVAC demand from data centers, a $1.3 billion backlog, 2026 sales and margin guidance, and infrastructure demand tied to artificial intelligence. It also noted that new factory ramps could pressure margins in the short term.

Inside the window, AAON rose past the 127.89 target. It reached the target in 66 days and peaked at 148.88 on 2026-05-07, a 37.4% gain. The window ended at 142.26. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On May 7, 2026, AAON reported first-quarter results. Investor's Business Daily reported record revenue of $496.9 million, a raised 2026 outlook, and backlog of $1.62 billion at the end of Q1.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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