Track record · closed signal

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) — closed signal from March 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 31, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

EFC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$12.53 Published $13.78 Target $13.57 Window close $13.73 Peak
$12.00 – $12.70Entry zone — fair-value band
$12.53Published — price the day we called it
$13.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$13.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$13.73
peak on May 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$13.57
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
March 2, 2026 – May 31, 2026

The thesis — published March 2, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.78
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.00 – $12.70
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$12.53
published March 2, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

EFC could give steady income and a short-term bounce, but only if lending markets calm down. The company raised $400M by selling unsecured notes to make funding easier and is adjusting liabilities to grow its portfolio. Some research warns the company's tangible book value could be pressured, so treat this like a short-term trade: buy near the low end, earn the income, and exit quickly if market stress returns.

Primary drivers

  • The $400M note sale helps funding and flexibility
  • Income from the portfolio can attract buyers if markets steady
  • Management is taking steps to grow the loan and mortgage holdings
  • Concerns about book value make this a short-term, range-focused trade

How it played out

EFC: thesis came close but missed the target

Lyra published EFC at $12.53 on 2026-03-02 with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to a $400M unsecured note sale, income from the portfolio, steps to grow loan and mortgage holdings, and book-value concerns that kept this framed as a short-term, range-focused trade.

Inside the window, EFC rose to a peak of $13.73 on 2026-05-27, with a peak gain of 9.6%. The target was $13.78. It never got there. The signal ended on 2026-05-31 at $13.57. The thesis mostly played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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