Track record · closed signal

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) — closed signal from February 28, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 29, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GILD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$148.95 Published $163.85 Target $134.43 Window close $150.77 Peak
$146.00 – $151.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$148.95Published — price the day we called it
$163.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$150.77Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$134.43Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 12% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$150.77
peak on March 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$134.43
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 28, 2026 – May 29, 2026

The thesis — published February 28, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$163.85
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$146.00 – $151.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$148.95
published February 28, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Recent positive trial news for an HIV treatment gave investors a reason to buy, so the stock may bounce in the next few months. The share price has been weak, so early gains could be uneven - treat this as a short-term swing where you buy near the lower range and sell some shares as the price rises. Major risks are market-wide healthcare selloffs, unexpected trial results, or the rally stalling after the first jump.

Primary drivers

  • HIV trial news boosts confidence in key drugs
  • Price may rebound after being under pressure
  • Healthcare sector moves could help the stock
  • Defined trading setup allows clear buy/sell points

How it played out

GILD: target was not reached

Lyra published GILD at 148.95 on 2026-02-28 with a short-term thesis for 10% growth and a target of 163.85. The thesis pointed to recent HIV trial news, a possible rebound after pressure on the share price, healthcare sector moves, and a defined trading setup between 146 and 151.

Inside the window, GILD peaked at 150.77 on 2026-03-02, a 1.2% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached it. By 2026-05-29, it ended at 134.43. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-07, Gilead agreed to buy Tubulis for 3.15 billion dollars upfront, with up to 1.85 billion dollars in milestone payments. On 2026-05-07, Gilead said it expected a 2026 adjusted loss because of acquired research and development charges and acquisition financing costs.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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