Track record · closed signal

Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR) — closed signal from February 27, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 28, 2026 — -26.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ABR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$7.10 – $7.60Entry zone — fair-value band

$7.48Published — price the day we called it

$9.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$8.90Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$5.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 76% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-26.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+19%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+10.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$5.50

last close inside the window, ended May 28, 2026

Peak price

$8.90

peak on March 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 27, 2026

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$9.35

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$7.10 – $7.60

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$7.48

published February 27, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Arbor could bounce in the next few months mainly because income-focused buyers may chase its dividend, not because the business is improving. The $0.30 quarterly payout announced Feb 27 can keep demand steady short-term, but analysts warn sales and profits are falling. Expect quick gains that can fade and wild swings if interest rates or lending sentiment change.

Primary drivers

The $0.30 dividend keeps income-seeking buyers interested
Debate over value can draw contrarian buyers
Low price levels can trigger quick, short-term squeezes
Declining sales and profits are the main near-term danger

How it played out

ABR: thesis partly played out, but the target was missed

Lyra published ABR at $7.48 on 2026-02-27 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth. The thesis pointed to the $0.30 quarterly payout announced on Feb. 27, possible income-seeking demand, contrarian interest around value, and quick squeezes from low price levels. It also warned that declining sales and profits were the main near-term danger.

Inside the 2026-02-27 to 2026-05-28 window, ABR rose to a peak of $8.90 on 2026-03-04, a 19% gain. It stayed below the $9.35 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended at $5.50. The thesis partly played out early, then missed by the close.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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