Track record · closed signal

HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) — closed signal from February 25, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 26, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HSBC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$92.80 Published $100.22 Target $93.74 Window close $94.80 Peak
$89.00 – $93.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$92.80Published — price the day we called it
$100.22Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$94.80Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$93.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 26% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$94.80
peak on February 26, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$93.74
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 25, 2026 – May 26, 2026

The thesis — published February 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+8%
over the measurement window
Target price
$100.22
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$89.00 – $93.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$92.80
published February 25, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

HSBC jumped after reporting its best profit before tax and saying it will keep focusing on returning money to shareholders. News about higher bonuses keeps attention on the stock and may attract short-term buyers. The price action is uneven, so this is a short-term trade idea: buy only on clear pullbacks and use tight exits.

Primary drivers

  • Very strong yearly profit supports returning money to shareholders
  • Changes to pay and bonuses keep investor attention on the plan
  • Recent rebound opportunity after banks pulled back
  • Big, liquid bank can gain from index and large fund rebalancing

How it played out

HSBC: target was not reached in the window

Lyra published HSBC at 92.8 on 2026-02-25 as a short-term idea with 8% expected growth. The thesis pointed to very strong yearly profit, a focus on returning money to shareholders, pay and bonus changes that kept attention on the plan, a rebound after banks pulled back, and possible support from index and large fund rebalancing.

Inside the window from 2026-02-25 to 2026-05-26, HSBC peaked at 94.8 on 2026-02-26, a 2.1% gain. The 100.22 target was never reached. It ended at 93.74. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the expected move.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-25, HSBC reported 2025 pre-tax profit of $29.9 billion and said it was on track to achieve $1.5 billion of cost savings six months early. The same day, HSBC said its bonus pool rose to $3.9 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HSBC signals