Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) — closed signal from July 2, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 2, 2025
Qualcomm shares have climbed for seven days after partner Silicon Motion confirmed that its new car computer chip works well. This proof shows the company is winning business outside of phones. Investor mood is very positive, and many more people are buying than usual. A future 35% tax credit from Washington could cut factory costs. If the price cools to around $160, it may set up a move toward $185 within three months.
Primary drivers
- 2 Jul: Partner test proves Qualcomm's in-car chip is winning space in dashboards.
- Seven-day climb and strong buying show the uptrend still has plenty of energy.
- Possible 35% tax credit could make future US factories cheaper and more profitable.
- High 93% score suggests the stock is still reasonably priced for its growth pace.
How it played out
QCOM: thesis partly played out but missed the target
Lyra published QCOM at $161 on 2025-07-02, looking for 15% growth toward $183.16 within three months. The thesis pointed to in-car chip traction, a seven-day climb, strong buying, a possible 35% tax credit, and a 93% score that suggested the stock was still reasonably priced for its growth pace.
Inside the window, QCOM rose but never reached the target. The peak was $173.55 on 2025-09-24, a 7.8% gain. It stayed below $183.16, so there were no days to target. The stock ended the window at $165.51. The verdict was partial: the direction was right, but the published move did not play out in full.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-30, Qualcomm reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $10.4B. On 2025-09-24, Qualcomm announced the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 for high-end Android devices.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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