Track record · closed signal

Amgen Inc. (AMGN) — closed signal from February 25, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 26, 2026 — -12.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMGN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$387.17 Published $425.89 Target $339.30 Window close $391.29 Peak
$375.00 – $390.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$387.17Published — price the day we called it
$425.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$391.29Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$339.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 11% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-12.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+1.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+8.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$339.30
last close inside the window, ended May 26, 2026
Peak price
$391.29
peak on March 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published February 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$425.89
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$375.00 – $390.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$387.17
published February 25, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amgen will speak at a healthcare conference on March 2, which can remind investors about its drug pipeline. If the company's message is clear and trading after the event shows buyers stepping in, short-term interest from healthcare-focused investors could push the stock higher. The plan is to buy on small drops and only add if buyers stay in control after the event.

Primary drivers

  • March 2 conference can highlight Amgen's drug pipeline and plans
  • Investors may move into healthcare stocks when growth gets uncertain
  • The stock has been on a steady path up with controlled swings
  • Clear messaging after the event could make investors value shares higher

How it played out

AMGN: the target was not reached

Lyra published AMGN at $387.17 on 2026-02-25 with a short-term thesis for 10% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a March 2 healthcare conference, possible attention on the drug pipeline, steadier healthcare demand when growth was uncertain, controlled price swings, and clearer messaging after the event.

Inside the window from 2026-02-25 to 2026-05-26, AMGN peaked at $391.29 on 2026-03-02, a 1.1% gain. It stayed below the $425.89 target. The stock ended at $339.30. The thesis only partially played out: there was a small early move, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On April 30, 2026, Amgen reported first-quarter revenue of $8.62 billion and adjusted earnings of $5.15 per share. The same report said 2026 revenue guidance was $37.1 billion to $38.5 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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