Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from February 25, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 26, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,049.56 Published $1,206.99 Target $1,064.74 Window close $1,081.99 Peak
$1,025.00 – $1,060.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,049.56Published — price the day we called it
$1,206.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,081.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,064.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$1,081.99
peak on May 26, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,064.74
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 25, 2026 – May 26, 2026

The thesis — published February 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,206.99
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,025.00 – $1,060.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,049.56
published February 25, 2026
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lilly looks well positioned for a short-term rebound because recent GLP-1 news makes investors compare competitors and favor Lilly. A major bank reiterated a higher price target, keeping attention from big investors. The stock pulled back recently and is near oversold, so buying in stages aims to catch a bounce while limiting downside.

Primary drivers

  • News shifts focus to Lilly among GLP-1 competitors
  • Analyst reiteration keeps institutional interest high
  • Recent pullback makes a rebound more likely
  • Big pharma seen as safer during volatile markets

How it played out

LLY: target was not reached by May 26

Lyra published LLY on February 25, 2026 at $1049.56. The thesis expected 15% growth with a target of $1206.99. It pointed to GLP-1 competitor news, analyst support, a recent pullback, and the idea that big pharma was seen as safer during volatile markets.

Inside the window, LLY rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $1081.99 on May 26, 2026, with a peak gain of 3.1%. It ended at $1064.74. The thesis partly played out because the stock finished above the publication price, but the expected move missed.

What happened during the window

On February 26, 2026, Business Insider reported that Lilly announced oral orforglipron beat Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide in a trial. On April 30, 2026, MarketWatch reported first-quarter GLP-1 sales of $12.9 billion and said Lilly raised its 2026 revenue forecast.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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