Track record · closed signal

The Mosaic Company (MOS) — closed signal from February 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 25, 2026 — -22.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MOS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$27.50 – $29.20Entry zone — fair-value band

$28.97Published — price the day we called it

$33.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$32.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$22.51Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 71% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-22.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$22.51

last close inside the window, ended May 25, 2026

Peak price

$32.25

peak on March 12, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$33.60

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$27.50 – $29.20

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$28.97

published February 24, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Policy moves to secure key farm inputs have made people focus on US fertilizer makers. That attention could lift Mosaic's stock if follow-up headlines keep interest high. Right now the price still needs to settle, so treat this as a dip-buy idea: buy on weakness with a plan, not as a fast breakout trade. If the price breaks below support, avoid buying and wait for a clearer recovery.

Primary drivers

Government focus on US supply helps investor confidence in domestic producers
Fertilizer prices can swing quickly when news about supply appears
Buying on dips gives a clear place to limit potential losses
Adds industry exposure that is different from tech-focused investments

How it played out

MOS: target was not reached inside the window

Lyra published MOS at $28.97 on February 24, 2026, as a short-term dip-buy idea with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to government focus on US supply, sensitivity in fertilizer prices when supply news appeared, a defined dip-buy setup, and industry exposure outside tech-heavy positions.

Inside the window, MOS rose to $32.25 on March 12, a peak gain of 11.3%. It stayed below the $33.60 target and never reached it. By May 25, it ended at $22.51. The thesis partially played out early, but the full target missed.

What happened during the window

On May 11, 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported that Mosaic had swung to a first-quarter loss and withdrawn its phosphate production guidance. The same report said Mosaic cut capital spending after higher input costs.

Mosaic Pulls Guidance, Cuts Spending as Fertilizer Costs Surge

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MOS signals