Track record · closed signal

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) — closed signal from February 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ALSN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$116.00 – $122.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$121.43Published — price the day we called it

$140.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$137.62Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$109.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$137.62

peak on April 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+13.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$109.87

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 24, 2026 – May 25, 2026

The thesis — published February 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$140.85

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$116.00 – $122.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$121.43

published February 24, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Allison looks like a short-term buy into the next quarter. The company gave guidance after buying Dana Off-Highway, and that deal could let Allison save costs and make more cash. Tariffs could squeeze profit margins soon, so keep expectations cautious. If the company executes as planned, price could rebound. Aim to buy on pullbacks rather than chasing big jumps.

Primary drivers

Progress combining businesses can cut costs and boost value
Clear multi-year guidance makes the business easier to judge
Stronger cash flow can draw interest from industrial investors
Buying on dips limits exposure to tariff-related shocks

How it played out

ALSN: target was not reached inside the window

Lyra published ALSN at $121.43 on 2026-02-24 with 16% expected growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to progress combining businesses, clearer multi-year guidance, stronger cash flow, and buying on dips to limit exposure to tariff-related shocks. It also kept expectations cautious because tariffs could squeeze profit margins soon.

Inside the window, ALSN rose to a peak of $137.62 on 2026-04-27, a 13.3% gain. That stayed below the $140.85 target. It never got there. By 2026-05-25, the stock ended at $109.87. The thesis partially played out on the rebound, but missed the target and finished below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ALSN signals