Track record · closed signal

Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (IPG) — closed signal from July 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 20, 2025 — +5.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

IPG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$24.38 – $25.55Entry zone — fair-value band

$25.27Published — price the day we called it

$31.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$28.42Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$26.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+5.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$26.63

last close inside the window, ended October 20, 2025

Peak price

$28.42

peak on September 30, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$31.94

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$24.38 – $25.55

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$25.27

published July 22, 2025

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares of IPG have dropped 27% since April even though the company earned far more per share and kept its best profit margin ever last quarter. A new AI-powered shopping tool released on 7/22 could add fresh income, and government approval of its planned tie-up with rival Omnicom should arrive within two months. After such a steep slide and with these two pieces of good news on the horizon, the stock could bounce 25-30% back to about $33-35 within three months.

Primary drivers

Last quarter profit per share beat forecasts by 36% and 18% margin shows tight cost control.
AI shopping platform launched 7/22 could bring in extra sales from new kinds of work.
Regulators may OK Omnicom deal in 60 days, letting the share price catch peers.
Ultra-low momentum and gloomy mood hint the recent slide could bounce soon.

How it played out

IPG: thesis partially played out but missed the target

Lyra published IPG at $25.27 on 2025-07-22 with a short-term thesis for 28% growth to $31.94. The thesis pointed to a 27% slide since April, a profit per share beat of 36%, an 18% margin, a new artificial intelligence shopping tool launched on 7/22, possible approval of the Omnicom deal, and a bounce from weak momentum.

Inside the window, IPG rose, but not enough. The stock peaked at $28.42 on 2025-09-30, a 12.4% gain, and stayed below the $31.94 target. It ended at $26.63. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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