Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from February 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 25, 2026 — +4.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.40 – $13.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$12.93Published — price the day we called it

$14.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.12Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$13.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+4.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$13.55

last close inside the window, ended May 25, 2026

Peak price

$14.12

peak on April 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.48

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.40 – $13.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$12.93

published February 24, 2026

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a short-term defensive idea: the bank looks set to bounce in the next 0-3 months. Recent analyst notes point to stronger sales and company directors buying shares, which helps restore trust after a dip. The plan is to buy near the nearby support level and not chase fast rallies. It also helps reduce exposure to tech if markets get volatile.

Primary drivers

Directors buying shares and improving sales rebuild confidence
Gives portfolio balance away from tech if markets swing
Price likely to rebound after a pullback, improving short-term returns
Better overall market sentiment can help banks that react to rates

How it played out

VLY: target was not reached inside the window

Lyra published VLY at 12.93 on 2026-02-24 as a short-term defensive bank idea with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to directors buying shares, improving sales, portfolio balance away from tech, a rebound after a pullback, and better overall market sentiment helping banks that reacted to rates.

Inside the window, VLY rose to 14.12 on 2026-04-23, a 9.2% peak gain, but it stayed below the 14.48 target. It never got there. By 2026-05-25, the stock ended at 13.55. The thesis partially played out, because the stock rose, but the published target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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