Open Text Corporation (OTEX) — closed signal from July 22, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 20, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 55 days.
The thesis — published July 22, 2025
Shares dropped when the finance chief quit, yet early numbers show about $1.31 billion in quarterly sales, topping forecasts. Management still sees bigger profits from its cloud tools. At only 10 times the cash it may earn in 2026 and after 12 straight years of raising its dividend, lots of gloom is already priced in. An August investor day should unveil cost-cut and cash-return targets, giving room for a bounce toward $35-$37 over the next 90 days.
Primary drivers
- Early sales report beat forecasts, showing the business is running better than feared.
- August meeting will share plans to raise profits and decide how to use extra cash.
- Stock costs 10× future cash while similar software firms trade above 15×, signaling a bargain.
- A 12-year streak of higher dividends can lure investors who want both income and growth.
How it played out
OTEX: target reached in 55 days
Lyra published OTEX at $29.27 on July 22, 2025, with 25% expected growth and a $35.99 target. The thesis pointed to early quarterly sales of about $1.31 billion, plans for an August meeting on profits and cash use, a 10 times future cash valuation, and a 12-year dividend growth streak.
Inside the window, OTEX reached the target in 55 days. The stock peaked at $39.58 on October 15, with a 35.2% gain, then ended the window at $38.81 on October 20. The published thesis played out. The target was reached and the stock stayed above it at the close.
What happened during the window
On October 3, 2025, Legal IT Insider reported that NetDocuments agreed to acquire OpenText's eDOCS business for $163 million in cash. The article said the transaction was expected to close in early 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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