Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from February 23, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 24, 2026 — +11.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$185.00 – $193.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$192.68Published — price the day we called it

$240.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$215.33Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 91% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+11.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+22.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+9.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$215.33

last close inside the window, ended May 24, 2026

Peak price

$236.54

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 23, 2026

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$240.85

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$185.00 – $193.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$192.68

published February 23, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is likely to move a lot around its earnings news. Many people and analysts are watching, which keeps buying interest high, and recent trading shows strong momentum. But the stock is already stretched and could jump or drop sharply if guidance surprises. For the next 0-3 months, it's safer to buy on dips or wait for confirmation after earnings.

Primary drivers

Earnings and forward guidance drive short-term moves
Analyst upgrades keep investor interest high
Growing demand for AI and data-center gear supports dips
Earnings events increase the chance of big price swings

How it played out

NVDA: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published NVDA on 2026-02-23 at 192.68 with a short-term setup. The expected growth was 25%, with a target at 240.85. The thesis pointed to earnings and forward guidance, analyst upgrades, demand for artificial intelligence and data-center gear, and the chance of big price swings around earnings.

Inside the window from 2026-02-23 to 2026-05-24, NVDA rose but stayed below the target. The peak was 236.54 on 2026-05-14, a 22.8% gain. It never reached 240.85. The stock ended at 215.33. The thesis partly played out because the move was strong, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On March 17, 2026, Tom's Hardware reported that Nvidia introduced BlueField-4 STX at GTC 2026, a storage architecture for agentic artificial intelligence workloads. On May 20, 2026, Axios reported that Nvidia posted quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion and forecast second quarter revenue between $89.18 billion and $92.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals