Track record · closed signal

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) — closed signal from July 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 20, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

WFC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$81.61 Published $92.82 Target $85.57 Window close $87.01 Peak
$78.73 – $81.18Entry zone — fair-value band
$81.61Published — price the day we called it
$92.82Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$87.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$85.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$87.01
peak on October 15, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$85.57
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 22, 2025 – October 20, 2025

The thesis — published July 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$92.82
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$78.73 – $81.18
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$81.61
published July 22, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Wells Fargo earned more per share than expected, raised its outlook for how much it will make on loans, and restarted share buybacks. Even with these positives, the stock still sells for less than its usual price compared to its net assets. The bank was trusted to sell $8 billion of new bonds, and rising interest rates help its loan profits. A Fed update this fall could push the stock to about $94, but ongoing rules issues add caution.

Primary drivers

  • Higher loan-income forecast balances slightly higher bad-loan costs
  • Successful $8 billion bond sale shows investors trust the bank
  • Share buybacks return, boosting the case for stronger shareholder payouts
  • Loan book earns more as long-term rates rise faster than short-term ones

How it played out

WFC: rose, but never reached the target

Lyra published WFC on 2025-07-22 at $81.61 with expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to higher loan-income expectations, restarted share buybacks, an $8 billion bond sale, stronger loan profits from the rate curve, and caution from ongoing rules issues.

Inside the 2025-07-22 to 2025-10-20 window, WFC peaked at $87.01 on 2025-10-15, for a peak gain of 6.6%. It stayed below the $92.82 target. The stock ended at $85.57. The thesis partly played out on direction, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-14, Wells Fargo reported third-quarter earnings of $1.66 a share and revenue of $21.44 billion, according to Investor's Business Daily. On 2025-10-14, Barron's reported that Wells Fargo rose 7.2% after beating earnings estimates and raising its return-on-equity target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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