Track record · closed signal

Apple Inc. (AAPL) — closed signal from February 21, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 22, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AAPL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$264.58 Published $291.04 Target $308.82 Window close $311.40 Peak
$255.00 – $266.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$264.58Published — price the day we called it
$291.04Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$311.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$308.82Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 75 days.

Peak price
$311.40
peak on May 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+17.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$308.82
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
75
Window
February 21, 2026 – May 22, 2026

The thesis — published February 21, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$291.04
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$255.00 – $266.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$264.58
published February 21, 2026
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Apple is being watched for the next 0-3 months because it's a large, liquid company that can help protect a tech-heavy portfolio. Recent headlines are about the whole tech industry - faster AI timelines and media or regulatory noise - which can make prices swing more. The plan is to buy gradually if the price settles near support and the market calms.

Primary drivers

  • Large-company liquidity helps manage short-term risk and quick trading
  • Industry AI news can lift many tech stocks and help recover prices
  • Media and regulatory headlines can cause bigger price swings and press valuations
  • Staggered buying near support lowers the chance of buying into a falling price

How it played out

AAPL: target reached in 75 days

Lyra published AAPL at 264.58 on 2026-02-21 with 10% expected growth and a 291.04 target. The thesis pointed to Apple as a large, liquid company for short-term risk control, possible support from industry artificial intelligence news, possible pressure from media and regulatory headlines, and staggered buying near support.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 75 days. It peaked at 311.4 on 2026-05-22, with a 17.7% gain, and ended at 308.82. The target was reached and the final price stayed above it. The published thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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