Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from February 21, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 22, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$51.50 – $53.75Entry zone — fair-value band

$53.06Published — price the day we called it

$61.55Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$55.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$51.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$55.40

peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+4.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$51.80

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 21, 2026 – May 22, 2026

The thesis — published February 21, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$61.55

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$51.50 – $53.75

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$53.06

published February 21, 2026

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America pulled back sharply and looks set for a short-term rebound. The bank plans to put $25 billion into private credit, which could lift fees and interest income and attract investor attention. Because the overall trend could still be weak, the approach is to buy in stages and cut losses quickly if the stock falls further.

Primary drivers

$25B private credit could boost fees and interest income
Stock may bounce back after a heavy sell-off in a liquid large cap
Bank results and markets may improve if economic turbulence eases
Clear stop levels let you limit losses if weakness returns

How it played out

BAC: rebound started, target was not reached

On February 21, 2026, Lyra published a short-term BAC thesis at $53.06 with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to a rebound after a sharp pullback, a planned $25 billion move into private credit, possible fee and interest-income benefits, better bank results if turbulence eased, and tight loss control if weakness returned.

Inside the window, BAC rose to $55.40 on April 15, with a peak gain of 4.4%. It never reached $61.55. By May 22, it ended at $51.80. The rebound partly showed up, but it stayed below the target and finished below the publication price. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On April 15, 2026, Bank of America reported first-quarter profit of $8.6 billion, up 17%, and revenue growth of 7%. MarketWatch reported the same day that equities revenue rose 30% and total revenue was $30.27 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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