Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from February 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 21, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$243.45 Published $277.53 Target $302.24 Window close $303.18 Peak
$238.00 – $247.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$243.45Published — price the day we called it
$277.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$303.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$302.24Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 74 days.

Peak price
$303.18
peak on May 21, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+24.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$302.24
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
74
Window
February 20, 2026 – May 21, 2026

The thesis — published February 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$277.53
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$238.00 – $247.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$243.45
published February 20, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam Research is a volatile chip-equipment company. Short-term worries about AI and global politics can push the stock around, but a new Boise project tied to Micron strengthens the long-term demand story. In the next few months, prefer buying when the price falls back rather than chasing sudden jumps.

Primary drivers

  • Boise project with Micron boosts future equipment demand
  • Industry leaders rebound quickly when AI optimism returns
  • High volatility means bigger short-term moves and opportunities
  • Geopolitical and AI worries can cause sharp, quick reversals

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 74 days

Lyra published LRCX at $243.45 on 2026-02-20 with a short-term thesis for 14% growth toward $277.53. The thesis pointed to a Boise project with Micron, a rebound if artificial intelligence optimism returned, high volatility, and the risk that geopolitical and artificial intelligence worries could cause quick reversals.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 74 days. It peaked at $303.18 on 2026-05-21, with a peak gain of 24.5%. It ended at $302.24. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-22, Lam Research reported fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.47 per share on sales of $5.84 billion. It also guided for adjusted earnings of $1.65 per share on sales of $6.6 billion for the quarter ending 2026-06-28.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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