Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) — closed signal from July 2, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2025 — +81.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 76 days.
The thesis — published July 2, 2025
Peabody just got a boost because the Senate talked about laws that favor coal, pushing the stock up 4.8% on June 30. Even after that jump, the price is still 37% below this year’s peak and has been sliding for years. Trading volume was much heavier than normal, hinting that big investors may be buying, but a work stoppage at an Australian mine and weak company scores warn that the story is not risk-free. If the price climbs above its long slide, it could reach about $20 within three months.
Primary drivers
- Senate bill backing coal sparked a 4.8% price jump and could give long-term policy help
- Daily trading was over 130% of normal and recent average price rose 10%, hinting big buyers
- Price remains 37% under its highs, so a rebound above the trend line may give outsized gains
- Extended lockout at an Australian mine and weak fundamentals add headline and execution risk
How it played out
BTU: target reached in 76 days
Lyra published BTU at $14.59 on 2025-07-02 with 40% expected growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to a Senate coal bill after a 4.8% price jump on June 30, trading over 130% of normal, a recent average price rise of 10%, and the stock still sitting 37% under its highs. It also named an Australian mine lockout and weak fundamentals as risks.
Inside the window, BTU reached the $20.29 target in 76 days. It kept rising to a peak of $26.90 on 2025-09-29, with an 84.4% peak gain, and ended at $26.45 on 2025-09-30. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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